The Lead
Jordan Castell grew up in Orlando and stayed home. He was a Freshman All-American at Florida and started 34 straight games there.
With one season left, he committed to Kentucky in January, while Will Stein was still building his first staff.
On Saturday at Oklahoma, Kentucky came up empty on a fourth down in the red zone. Castell walked up to his new coach. "Coach, I got your back," he told Stein. Then he made two interceptions, the second returned 41 yards for the touchdown that put the game away with 1:17 left. "I seen green grass. I'm going."
This Week's Read
Castell is one of four players behind Saturday's wins for first-year staffs. Our full story follows each of them: where he came from, why he chose a staff that had not coached a game, and how it has worked out.
The one who followed. USF offered Byrum Brown after watching him throw one 20-yard out. He stayed through a coaching change, and the new coach was Alex Golesh. When Golesh took the Auburn job, Brown committed four days after entering the portal. "I trust in that man fully," he said. On Saturday he ran for 115 yards, 13 of them on the last drive, and Auburn won in Athens for the first time in 31 years.
The one who wanted defense. Lacota Dippre asked for a spot on defense at Charlotte. James Madison wanted him back at tight end. "If you come down, it's offense," his position coach told him, and he dropped 20 pounds in a month. On Saturday he caught both of Florida's touchdown passes in a comeback from 17-3 at No. 7 Texas.
The quarterback who chose before he healed. Sam Leavitt entered the portal recovering from foot surgery. On Jan. 9, while he was visiting Tennessee, Lane Kiffin flew to Knoxville to meet him. Three days later he committed to LSU. On Saturday he completed 31 of 38 with four touchdowns in a shutout.
One followed his coach. Three chose a staff they had never played for. All four decided in the same few weeks of January.
The Market Moved
Five of the top seven lost on one Saturday. On Oct. 17, No. 1 Georgia, No. 2 Notre Dame, No. 5 Indiana, No. 6 Alabama and No. 7 Texas all lost, the most in that group on one day since the AP poll began in 1936, Front Office Sports reported. All five rank in the top 20 nationally in estimated roster spending, per The Athletic's figures cited in the piece. So what: a top-20 roster budget put all five near the top of the poll. Saturday came down to how the pieces fit, and that gets decided in January.
What's moving: rosters rebuilt in a single winter are winning in October. Two of Saturday's five top-seven upsets came from first-year staffs.
Worth your time
Big-Money Upsets Shake Up College Football (Front Office Sports, Oct. 18). For staffs: the spending estimates behind Saturday's losses, and the commitment BYU announced days before it beat Notre Dame.
College Sports' $1.77 Billion Payout Shows NIL's Impact On Football (Forbes, Oct. 15). For agents and athletes: what the first year of direct payments added up to across Division I, and why football takes a larger share at many major programs.
From the Field
What we heard across the network this week, from staffs and agencies getting ready for January.
An assistant coach on a first-year FCS staff, on the roster his staff inherited: "we lost 80, so we replaced 80 guys." More than 60 percent of the newcomers were true freshmen, he said, so "high school recruiting is going to be scarce this year."
A personnel staffer at a Power 4 program, on the bar for a player moving up a level: "If we're going down to an FCS or G5 school, we're not going to grab a guy with 100 or 200 yards on the season."
An agent at a regional agency, on why a losing season puts a top player on his radar: "if you're a elite wide receiver at a school that's not performing well ... that obviously hurts their status."
The Toolbox · Week 7, read from three chairs
Staff: a first-year staff has no record to sell, so the pitch is the people. Kiffin got on a plane. Golesh had three years of trust already in the bank.
Agent: the decisions that paid off on Saturday were made in a few weeks of January. With the window opening Jan. 4 for 10 days, the conversations that matter happen in November and December.
Athlete: know whether you are choosing a coach or a place. Brown chose the coach he trusted. Dippre chose a chance to win. Either answer works when you know it before January.
New on the network
Trivia, two this week.
A United Athletic Conference program joined the network. Its head coach is in his seventh season, and its stadium is named for the coach who won two national titles there.
An ACC program joined too. Its head coach is in his fourth season and once played quarterback for the school, and its city hosts the Kentucky Derby every May.
The Trusted Takeaway
In January, a new staff cannot show a player film of how it wins. It can only show up. Four of them did, and Saturday showed it.
Explore the network: for staffs · for agents · for athletes
When a staff had no record yet, what made you believe it? Reply to this email or write [email protected].